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Moonchance Probabilities
There are often questions about the chances of getting a moon with multiple attempts. The following is the clearest explanation that I have ever come across regarding the matter.
The "20% moonshot" events are independent, and any one of them has a 20% chance of creating a moon, independently of previous attempts. If you want to work out the chances of getting at least 1 moon in a number of attempts, you can do so as follows...
The chance of a moon *not* occurring is 80% or 0.8. (Probability of No Moon = P)
The only way that a moon will *not* occur in 2 attempts is if the first attempt does not create a moon AND the second chance does not create a moon.
P(NO MOON) * P(NO MOON)
0.8 x 0.8 = 0.64
So you can say using 2 attempts, there is a 64% chance of no moon, or a 36% chance of getting one by the end of the 2nd attempt.
For 3 attempts...
P(NO MOON) * P(NO MOON) * P(NO MOON)
0.8 x 0.8 x 0.8 = 0.512
Chance of no moon after 3 attempts is ~ 51%, chance of at least one moon by the end of 4 attempts is therefore ~49%.
The following table lists the chances of getting at least one moon by the end of so many attempts
1 attempt 20%
2 attempts 36%
3 attempts 49%
4 attempts 59%
5 attempts 67%
6 attempts 74%
7 attempts 79%
8 attempts 83%
9 attempts 87%
(100 attempts 99.999999979629640236655139137316%)
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